Professor Ewart Keep casts doubt on whether the UK economy really needs to have 50% of young people going to university. There might not be enough graduate jobs for these young people, he says. And he warns that the expansion of higher education could damage vocational training.
Professor Keep, from Warwick Business School, and Ken Mayhew from Oxford University, have challenged assumptions that increasing the number of graduates is the best route to a high-skills, high-wage economy.
'Severe pressure'
The increase in graduate numbers in recent decades has had "no visible impact on growth rates", says Professor Keep. Instead he says there could be greater returns from investment in vocational training and apprenticeships for older teenagers, rather than encouraging most 18 year olds to move from school or college into university.
Professor Keep says that the proportion of 16 and 17 year olds taking vocational qualifications was lower now than in 1989.
Professor Keep and Mr Mayhew, who run the Economic and Social Research Council Centre on Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance, argue that the rise in graduate numbers could damage efforts to improve training.
"The growth of higher education is likely to lead to severe pressure on other types of vocational training, as more and more young people are sucked into academic learning in order to meet the 50% target," they conclude. The international evidence does not support the case for more graduates, says Professor Keep.
A country such as Switzerland is a high-skills economy without the type of graduate levels being pursued in England. And Scotland and New Zealand already have a higher proportion of graduates, but without having a higher level of national wealth.
Student debt
And he argues that the difference in England's educational profile from other successful economies is not in graduate numbers, but in shortcomings in vocational training.
Professor Keep also challenges the claim that more than three-quarters of new jobs will be for graduates. He says that this will still be only represent a small proportion of the total jobs that need to be filled. And he says that if there are more graduates than "graduate jobs" it could mean that youngsters will not be able to find the jobs needed to pay off their student debts.
The government is pushing for an increase in graduate numbers - with the aim of at last half of young people entering university by the end of the decade.
No limit on ambition
It says that this is an economic necessity if businesses want to compete against other countries with highly-skilled and well-educated labour forces. It also argues that there should be no artificial limit on graduate numbers - and that it is only fair that if pupils achieve high enough grades that they should be offered the chance to go to university.
The government is encouraging universities to recruit students from a wider range of social backgrounds - in an attempt to give access to higher education to poorer families. The number of youngsters in England going to university is currently at 44% - and the government says that many other developed industrial countries have already moved above the 50% threshold.
