A worrying trend for some institutions has been the variability in applications across different types of universities and colleges. The expectation that Russell Group universities would be insulated from a decline in demand, has again not been proved to be the case. Although they still receive proportionally far larger numbers of applications than other institutions, it is many of the older colleges that have seen double digit decreases in the number of people wishing to apply. Various factors have been cited such as the reputation of the city, high profile course closures, or even simply fashion but the figures indicate that students are applying more tactically than they have ever done before. They are not going to 'waste' their application if they have no real prospect of getting in.
Other trends if indeed they are trends are emerging. Increasing numbers of students are opting to stay in their region or even at home. There is a fear that this is an option understandably favoured by poorer students and, therefore, the university or college experience that they obtain will be quite different from those who are able to go further afield to study. Also, concerns have been expressed about a decrease in applications from Muslim students, for whom prohibitions regarding loans and debts are acting as significant deterrents.
There has been a fear that prospective mature students, too, would be put off applying to university because of the higher fees involved and no parents or guardians would necessarily be around to help them out. But, while falls in applications from the over 25s have been more significant, again so far, they have not been as much as people expected. Interestingly, it is with the 19-year-olds that we see the greatest drop. This may be a result of many last year opting for deferred entry in order to keep their fee options open. It is noticeable that for 2006 entry there has been a significant drop in those applying for deferred entry (down by 13.9%) - students perhaps simply preferring to take a year out instead and applying on their return.
One success story has been the increase in applications for Foundation Degrees up by nearly 16% to over 30,532. These have not been simply at the expense of a decrease in applications for HNDs (down by over 30%) as the overall figure is up. Many who previously might have opted for an HND are now applying for degrees.
But full-time applications do not give the complete picture. Many institutions are reporting a decline in part-time interest. Part-time students (who are often funded by employers) are not able to benefit from deferred repayments of loans. The fees have gone up on a pro rata basis and the money must be found at the start of the course. It is still too early to see what impact this will have on this mode of participation.
Complexity of financial arrangements
Another issue is the sheer complexity of the range and type of bursaries on offer. In some cases there are more than nine different financial offers attached to a single course. It would seem that prospective students would need their own dedicated financial adviser to be able to work out what they are entitled to! So far, however, it would seem that variations in bursaries and scholarships have not had much effect. Recent research has shown that, far from being more worried, students are, in fact, less worried about the prospect of debt than before [2]. What is worrying, however, is that this is at a time when all figures show that debt is increasing, rather than diminishing, quite rapidly. There is a fear that while it is recognised that more money is needed in higher education and that it is only fair that the costs are spread around those who can most afford it, the complexity of the current bursary arrangements will make it socially regressive as only the savvy middle classes will be able to unpick (to their advantage) what is on offer. What does seem to be agreed at the moment, however, is that students are not making choices on the basis of one course being, say £200, cheaper than another. The course itself, followed by the institution, is still the most important factor in the decision-making process. There would have to be a significant financial advantage, or difference, to make a student opt for something cheaper.
Universities that have a track record, or are skilled, in marketing would seem to have an advantage. Those that have managed to get out clear and simple messages about fees and bursaries such as, for example, Leeds Met, who opted to publicise tuition fees of only £2,000 compared with the majority of £3,000, have seen a sharp rise in applications (up 7.8%). With all the noise and complexity of the financial arrangements, those messages that are getting through loud and clear, certainly seem to be having an effect.
The fact remains, however, that it will not be the number of applications that is significant but the number of enrolments. Last year there were over 120,000 'unplaced' applicants ie those who were not offered a place, or who declined or withdrew from the process. Even if applications decline this year, with demand outpacing supply, one must assume that most universities and colleges will still be able to fill their places in much the same way as they have done before. Also, the received wisdom is that applications will come back strongly after a couple of years, as was seen when fees were first introduced in 1998 and as has happened in Australia where higher fees have been part of the higher education scene for far longer.
Other issues
What is unknown, however, is the longer-term impact that higher fees will have on students' choices and decisions. Will there be a move away from academic towards the more vocational courses' Will students opt for the embryonic two-year degrees' Conversely, will students, in fact (as has been seen in the United States) take longer to complete a degree, as they take periods out to earn money and work their way through college'
More immediately, what are we to expect this year during Clearing' Will universities or colleges who are finding it difficult to fill places on certain courses go down the discounting route' Will the 'Easy Jet' syndrome kick in with different students paying different amounts for the same course' One thing, though, will be clear: the orientation towards 'the customer' will increase and there is likely to be a need to build relationships with those applying from the UK, as in the same way with postgraduate and overseas students. It is also possible that we will see a growing trend towards centralisation as the administration of bursaries (and scholarships) requires more standardised processes to ensure that all applicants are treated equitably.
While it is argued that the introduction of variable fees will result in only a temporary check on numbers of applications, it is likely that we shall see a gradual shift in the underlying processes which will slowly start changing the way in which higher education in the UK is administered.
References
1. UCAS figures 24 March 2006. www.ucas.com
2. The Student Experience Report 2006, UNITE/Ipsos MORI . www.unite-group.co.uk
